Methodical approach to economic indicators forecasting in new medicines development
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.24959/uekj.17.32Keywords:
new medicine, attractiveness of developments, economic indicators, forecasting, organizational and technological process, project budgeting, innovative developmentAbstract
Active development and implementation in medical practice new, more efficient medicines, especially for treatment of threatening and chronic diseases, increase of their economic and physical availability for the last 30 years, have significantly improved the quality of human life and prolonged its lifetime. Expansion and renewal of medicines range and o their availability increasing has not only provide doctors’ and patients’ opportunities, they have changed consumer demands as to their high quality, evidential efficiency, safety, up-to-date medical technologies in the whole. All this, together with the increase of requirements of state expertise to new medicines, in turn, caused more durable searching and development of medicines, expansion and increase of risks, a significant increase of prices for R&D investigations. Previous forecasting of marketing, economic and financial indicators in different scenarios of development gives a chance to make management and investment decisions as to the development of new medicine rationally. Aim. To motivate a methodical approach to economic indicators forecasting in the new medicines development. Materials and methods. We used scientific publications, scientific and research reports as to the new medicines development, individual investigations and results of monitoring of the retail market of medicines of “Pharmstandard’ company; as methods: conclusion, systematization of theoretical and practical materials, up-to-date methods of marketing analysis, graphic, comparative, economic and modeling. Results. We have worked out regulatory materials, decrees and orders of the Ministry of Health of Ukraine, scientific publications and individual investigations to determine steps and types of works in the process of previous informational patented and marketing investigations, which should be delivered when forecasting social and medical expediency, economic efficiency, commercial capability and investment attractiveness of a new medicine. We have motivated a composition of a module block, which consists of a number of subsystem models of dynamic indicators management and determined their logical systematic consequence. We have singled out constituent indicators of organizational and technological process and determined their function in monetary, time and work dimensions. We have worked out model indicators. Conclusions. We have developed a methodical approach to carrying out of prognostic computer analysis of the first part of organizational and technological new medicine development process and delivered practical approbation of economic indicators determination.
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